Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jared Goff — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.174
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.168
Dropbacks
610
Turnover EPA
-52.2
WPA
+2.60
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 38 | -0.008 | -0.056 | +0.047 | -0.3 | 1 / 0 | -7.0 | 1 | -2.5 | -0.17 | -12.0 |
| 2 | WAS | 37 | +0.026 | +0.033 | -0.007 | +0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.04 | -6.6 |
| 3 | MIN | 40 | +0.188 | +0.194 | -0.006 | +7.5 | 1 / 0 | -0.5 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.25 | -1.3 |
| 4 | SEA | 41 | +0.330 | +0.360 | -0.030 | +13.5 | 1 / 0 | -8.8 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.17 | +2.4 |
| 5 | NE | 37 | -0.505 | -0.559 | +0.054 | -18.7 | 1 / 1 | -12.9 | 2 | -10.9 | -0.38 | +0.7 |
| 7 | DAL | 31 | -0.130 | -0.214 | +0.084 | -4.0 | 2 / 2 | -16.1 | 5 | -13.7 | +0.16 | +9.3 |
| 8 | MIA | 38 | +0.243 | +0.229 | +0.015 | +9.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | +0.23 | +1.1 |
| 9 | GB | 26 | -0.038 | -0.056 | +0.019 | -1.0 | 1 / 0 | -6.8 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.13 | -17.7 |
| 10 | CHI | 28 | +0.587 | +0.630 | -0.043 | +16.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.5 | +0.58 | +4.2 |
| 11 | NYG | 26 | +0.104 | +0.108 | -0.004 | +2.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.12 | -0.3 |
| 12 | BUF | 39 | +0.215 | +0.145 | +0.070 | +8.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.1 | +0.10 | -3.2 |
| 13 | JAX | 43 | +0.454 | +0.503 | -0.049 | +19.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | +0.20 | +4.6 |
| 14 | MIN | 39 | +0.367 | +0.366 | +0.000 | +14.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.31 | +2.2 |
| 15 | NYJ | 38 | +0.295 | +0.308 | -0.013 | +11.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.51 | -5.4 |
| 16 | CAR | 44 | +0.316 | +0.312 | +0.004 | +13.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.0 | +0.20 | -2.3 |
| 17 | CHI | 30 | +0.137 | +0.192 | -0.055 | +4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.17 | -1.1 |
| 18 | GB | 35 | +0.239 | +0.214 | +0.025 | +8.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.24 | -0.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.