Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jared Goff — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.143
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.144
Dropbacks
754
Turnover EPA
-66.8
WPA
+4.11
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 35 | +0.251 | +0.187 | +0.063 | +8.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | -0.00 | -0.1 |
| 2 | SEA | 37 | +0.174 | +0.220 | -0.046 | +6.4 | 1 / 0 | -8.2 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.02 | +13.1 |
| 3 | ATL | 33 | +0.046 | +0.082 | -0.037 | +1.5 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.14 | +3.3 |
| 4 | GB | 30 | +0.075 | +0.082 | -0.007 | +2.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 2 | -3.6 | +0.13 | +3.7 |
| 5 | CAR | 30 | +0.195 | +0.192 | +0.002 | +5.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.9 | +0.08 | +3.1 |
| 6 | TB | 47 | +0.363 | +0.381 | -0.019 | +17.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.3 | +0.64 | +3.0 |
| 7 | BAL | 59 | -0.155 | -0.226 | +0.070 | -9.2 | 1 / 0 | -2.6 | 5 | -8.0 | -0.08 | -1.8 |
| 8 | LV | 37 | +0.036 | +0.065 | -0.029 | +1.3 | 1 / 0 | -11.2 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.05 | +1.7 |
| 10 | LAC | 33 | +0.447 | +0.449 | -0.002 | +14.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.90 | +1.3 |
| 11 | CHI | 38 | -0.086 | -0.029 | -0.057 | -3.3 | 3 / 0 | -14.0 | 2 | -4.2 | +0.36 | +0.6 |
| 12 | GB | 48 | -0.106 | -0.091 | -0.014 | -5.1 | 0 / 2 | -11.0 | 3 | -11.5 | -0.10 | +1.1 |
| 13 | NO | 27 | +0.339 | +0.277 | +0.062 | +9.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.37 | -1.6 |
| 14 | CHI | 39 | -0.223 | -0.162 | -0.060 | -8.7 | 2 / 0 | -2.1 | 4 | -6.0 | +0.10 | -10.7 |
| 15 | DEN | 36 | +0.412 | +0.423 | -0.011 | +14.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.7 | +0.14 | +8.1 |
| 16 | MIN | 41 | +0.342 | +0.348 | -0.006 | +14.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.57 | +1.6 |
| 17 | DAL | 33 | -0.015 | -0.048 | +0.033 | -0.5 | 2 / 0 | -11.0 | 1 | -2.4 | +0.03 | -7.1 |
| 18 | MIN | 33 | +0.323 | +0.330 | -0.007 | +10.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.32 | +3.2 |
| 19 | LA | 30 | +0.362 | +0.374 | -0.011 | +10.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.36 | +10.8 |
| 20 | TB | 45 | +0.157 | +0.180 | -0.024 | +7.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.29 | -0.8 |
| 21 | SF | 43 | +0.236 | +0.163 | +0.073 | +10.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.11 | -1.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.