Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
PJ Walker — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.294
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.288
Dropbacks
121
Turnover EPA
-29.9
WPA
-1.07
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | SF | 36 | -0.336 | -0.396 | +0.060 | -12.1 | 2 / 0 | -12.5 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.59 | -11.4 |
| 7 | IND | 33 | -0.116 | -0.098 | -0.018 | -3.8 | 1 / 0 | -1.0 | 2 | -3.6 | -0.03 | -18.7 |
| 8 | SEA | 34 | -0.222 | -0.167 | -0.055 | -7.5 | 2 / 1 | -13.2 | 3 | -7.8 | -0.40 | -5.1 |
| 10 | BAL | 1 | -0.203 | -0.279 | +0.076 | -0.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.01 | — |
| 12 | DEN | 17 | -0.699 | -0.671 | -0.028 | -11.9 | 0 / 1 | -3.2 | 4 | -7.5 | -0.06 | -21.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.