Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Deshaun Watson — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.127
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.127
Dropbacks
188
Turnover EPA
-24.1
WPA
-0.91
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | HOU | 23 | -0.222 | -0.198 | -0.024 | -5.1 | 1 / 0 | -6.7 | 1 | -1.9 | -0.36 | -13.5 |
| 14 | CIN | 43 | -0.104 | -0.119 | +0.015 | -4.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 2 | -2.6 | -0.08 | +1.1 |
| 15 | BAL | 31 | -0.130 | -0.092 | -0.038 | -4.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.7 | -0.04 | -2.0 |
| 16 | NO | 33 | -0.407 | -0.469 | +0.062 | -13.4 | 1 / 0 | -6.6 | 2 | -3.2 | -0.53 | -4.7 |
| 17 | WAS | 23 | +0.343 | +0.344 | -0.002 | +7.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -5.1 | +0.17 | -7.8 |
| 18 | PIT | 35 | -0.137 | -0.109 | -0.028 | -4.8 | 2 / 0 | -6.6 | 7 | -8.7 | -0.07 | +1.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.