Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Deshaun Watson — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.023
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.008
Dropbacks
236
Turnover EPA
-17.2
WPA
+0.60
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 27 | -0.145 | -0.206 | +0.061 | -3.9 | 1 / 0 | -6.4 | 5 | -8.6 | -0.22 | +10.3 |
| 2 | TB | 32 | +0.349 | +0.324 | +0.024 | +11.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.2 | +0.43 | +6.4 |
| 3 | CAR | 33 | +0.036 | +0.077 | -0.041 | +1.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | +0.23 | -13.7 |
| 4 | PIT | 35 | +0.282 | +0.262 | +0.019 | +9.9 | 1 / 0 | -2.4 | 2 | -2.0 | +0.27 | +3.8 |
| 5 | NYJ | 41 | -0.431 | -0.304 | -0.126 | -17.7 | 0 / 1 | -3.1 | 8 | -12.0 | -0.49 | -15.6 |
| 6 | BAL | 31 | -0.255 | -0.222 | -0.033 | -7.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.4 | +0.00 | -0.8 |
| 7 | TEN | 37 | +0.050 | +0.124 | -0.075 | +1.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.37 | +6.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.