Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Cooper Rush — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.045
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.057
Dropbacks
168
Turnover EPA
-10.3
WPA
+0.38
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 15 | -0.506 | -0.504 | -0.002 | -7.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.6 | -0.02 | -3.8 |
| 2 | CIN | 31 | +0.284 | +0.262 | +0.023 | +8.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.12 | -6.4 |
| 3 | NYG | 31 | +0.105 | +0.109 | -0.004 | +3.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.34 | +4.3 |
| 4 | WAS | 28 | +0.052 | +0.059 | -0.007 | +1.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.11 | -7.9 |
| 5 | LA | 19 | -0.353 | -0.351 | -0.002 | -6.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.2 | -0.05 | -5.1 |
| 6 | PHI | 38 | -0.178 | -0.221 | +0.043 | -6.8 | 3 / 0 | -10.3 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.12 | -17.3 |
| 11 | MIN | 5 | +0.256 | +0.252 | +0.005 | +1.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | -1.6 |
| 18 | WAS | 1 | -1.354 | -1.335 | -0.018 | -1.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | -35.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.