Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Patrick Mahomes — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.133
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.113
Dropbacks
199
Turnover EPA
-19.0
WPA
+0.46
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 29 | +0.015 | -0.079 | +0.094 | +0.4 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 2 | -3.8 | -0.13 | -11.9 |
| 2 | IND | 49 | +0.279 | +0.274 | +0.005 | +13.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.0 | +0.28 | +3.7 |
| 3 | MIA | 24 | +0.432 | +0.538 | -0.106 | +10.4 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | +18.7 |
| 4 | LV | 33 | +0.000 | +0.053 | -0.052 | +0.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.7 | +0.25 | -7.3 |
| 6 | LAC | 30 | +0.155 | +0.092 | +0.063 | +4.7 | 1 / 0 | -5.9 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.02 | +9.4 |
| 7 | SEA | 34 | -0.077 | -0.178 | +0.100 | -2.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.23 | -9.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.