Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Joshua Dobbs — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.188
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.181
Dropbacks
450
Turnover EPA
-72.4
WPA
-2.51
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 33 | -0.354 | -0.280 | -0.074 | -11.7 | 0 / 1 | -3.9 | 3 | -6.4 | -0.45 | +2.0 |
| 2 | NYG | 31 | +0.245 | +0.240 | +0.005 | +7.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.01 | +4.7 |
| 3 | DAL | 24 | +0.185 | +0.151 | +0.035 | +4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | +0.08 | +10.5 |
| 4 | SF | 42 | +0.167 | +0.093 | +0.074 | +7.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.5 | +0.07 | +5.3 |
| 5 | CIN | 35 | -0.472 | -0.447 | -0.025 | -16.5 | 2 / 1 | -14.8 | 3 | -9.2 | -0.36 | -14.6 |
| 6 | LA | 43 | -0.433 | -0.406 | -0.027 | -18.6 | 1 / 1 | -11.3 | 2 | -8.8 | -0.31 | -10.1 |
| 7 | SEA | 37 | -0.394 | -0.334 | -0.060 | -14.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.6 | -0.20 | -10.9 |
| 8 | BAL | 40 | -0.171 | -0.242 | +0.071 | -6.9 | 2 / 0 | -9.1 | 2 | -4.4 | -0.27 | +2.7 |
| 9 | ATL | 34 | -0.151 | -0.115 | -0.036 | -5.1 | 0 / 2 | -12.9 | 3 | -13.0 | +0.09 | -0.5 |
| 10 | NO | 35 | +0.299 | +0.238 | +0.062 | +10.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.30 | +1.9 |
| 11 | DEN | 34 | +0.011 | +0.031 | -0.020 | +0.4 | 1 / 0 | -5.1 | 2 | -2.3 | -0.46 | +2.8 |
| 12 | CHI | 34 | -0.772 | -0.700 | -0.073 | -26.3 | 4 / 0 | -15.3 | 2 | -3.5 | -0.57 | +2.6 |
| 14 | LV | 28 | -0.529 | -0.493 | -0.036 | -14.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -9.5 | -0.45 | -22.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.