Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Mason Rudolph — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.054
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.068
Dropbacks
55
Turnover EPA
-13.5
WPA
-0.37
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | SEA | 2 | +0.012 | -0.056 | +0.068 | +0.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | +22.5 |
| 11 | CIN | 16 | +0.616 | +0.670 | -0.054 | +9.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.17 | +12.2 |
| 12 | CHI | 33 | -0.182 | -0.176 | -0.006 | -6.0 | 1 / 1 | -9.4 | 2 | -6.5 | -0.49 | +8.9 |
| 13 | BUF | 3 | -0.746 | -0.763 | +0.017 | -2.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.04 | -67.3 |
| 19 | HOU | 1 | +1.353 | +1.257 | +0.096 | +1.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | +30.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.