Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Lamar Jackson — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.043
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.046
Dropbacks
421
Turnover EPA
-57.5
WPA
+0.93
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 33 | +0.008 | +0.071 | -0.064 | +0.2 | 0 / 1 | -4.2 | 3 | -7.6 | +0.16 | -4.2 |
| 2 | KC | 28 | -0.068 | -0.041 | -0.027 | -1.9 | 2 / 0 | -10.1 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.00 | +4.5 |
| 3 | DET | 34 | +0.076 | +0.218 | -0.142 | +2.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 4 | -2.9 | +0.04 | +5.5 |
| 4 | DEN | 40 | +0.273 | +0.260 | +0.013 | +10.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -2.7 | +0.23 | +0.8 |
| 5 | IND | 47 | +0.717 | +0.691 | +0.026 | +33.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | +1.15 | +17.8 |
| 6 | LAC | 30 | -0.123 | -0.113 | -0.010 | -3.7 | 2 / 0 | -9.0 | 3 | -3.3 | +0.04 | +5.4 |
| 7 | CIN | 36 | -0.280 | -0.259 | -0.020 | -10.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.6 | -0.09 | -13.1 |
| 9 | MIN | 44 | -0.028 | -0.040 | +0.012 | -1.2 | 2 / 0 | -10.1 | 3 | -2.8 | +0.28 | -0.2 |
| 10 | MIA | 45 | -0.121 | -0.175 | +0.054 | -5.4 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 4 | -7.3 | -0.46 | -3.9 |
| 12 | CLE | 34 | -0.319 | -0.322 | +0.003 | -10.9 | 4 / 0 | -12.5 | 2 | -2.3 | -0.40 | -5.2 |
| 13 | PIT | 45 | +0.114 | +0.058 | +0.056 | +5.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 7 | -8.3 | +0.03 | -5.9 |
| 14 | CLE | 5 | -0.293 | -0.300 | +0.007 | -1.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.9 | -0.05 | +30.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.