Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Lamar Jackson — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.106
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.103
Dropbacks
560
Turnover EPA
-63.3
WPA
+0.73
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 26 | -0.158 | -0.170 | +0.012 | -4.1 | 1 / 1 | -9.4 | 4 | -10.2 | -0.04 | +11.4 |
| 2 | CIN | 33 | +0.369 | +0.376 | -0.006 | +12.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.41 | +5.8 |
| 3 | IND | 35 | -0.221 | -0.207 | -0.014 | -7.7 | 0 / 1 | -5.2 | 4 | -9.1 | -0.35 | +0.8 |
| 4 | CLE | 22 | +0.420 | +0.312 | +0.107 | +9.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.6 | +0.04 | +19.6 |
| 5 | PIT | 42 | -0.333 | -0.315 | -0.018 | -14.0 | 1 / 1 | -10.7 | 4 | -10.4 | -0.56 | -3.4 |
| 6 | TEN | 31 | +0.151 | +0.189 | -0.038 | +4.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.17 | +4.9 |
| 7 | DET | 27 | +0.892 | +0.936 | -0.044 | +24.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.23 | +11.1 |
| 8 | ARI | 31 | -0.252 | -0.161 | -0.091 | -7.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -4.8 | +0.04 | -0.9 |
| 9 | SEA | 26 | -0.180 | -0.130 | -0.050 | -4.7 | 0 / 1 | -5.6 | 1 | -5.6 | -0.04 | +15.5 |
| 10 | CLE | 26 | -0.129 | -0.227 | +0.097 | -3.4 | 2 / 0 | -9.8 | 3 | -5.0 | -0.30 | -7.4 |
| 11 | CIN | 29 | +0.277 | +0.284 | -0.008 | +8.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.6 | +0.25 | +7.0 |
| 12 | LAC | 34 | -0.121 | -0.105 | -0.016 | -4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | +0.10 | -12.7 |
| 14 | LA | 46 | +0.261 | +0.274 | -0.014 | +12.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 2 | -1.9 | +0.59 | -1.7 |
| 15 | JAX | 27 | -0.140 | -0.132 | -0.008 | -3.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 3 | -5.9 | -0.01 | +3.2 |
| 16 | SF | 37 | +0.207 | +0.133 | +0.074 | +7.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.3 | -0.04 | -1.7 |
| 17 | MIA | 22 | +1.323 | +1.318 | +0.005 | +29.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.46 | +23.6 |
| 20 | HOU | 25 | +0.179 | +0.156 | +0.023 | +4.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -2.3 | +0.11 | +11.4 |
| 21 | KC | 41 | -0.066 | -0.123 | +0.057 | -2.7 | 1 / 1 | -9.7 | 4 | -10.9 | -0.33 | -5.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.