Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Baker Mayfield — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.210
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.205
Dropbacks
631
Turnover EPA
-75.1
WPA
+2.72
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 31 | +0.631 | +0.664 | -0.033 | +19.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.6 | +0.35 | +12.7 |
| 2 | DET | 24 | -0.143 | -0.143 | +0.000 | -3.4 | 1 / 0 | -3.2 | 5 | -9.9 | -0.18 | -7.9 |
| 3 | DEN | 40 | -0.453 | -0.457 | +0.004 | -18.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.9 | 7 | -11.4 | -0.35 | +3.9 |
| 4 | PHI | 49 | +0.235 | +0.191 | +0.044 | +11.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.6 | +0.19 | -5.9 |
| 5 | ATL | 25 | +0.352 | +0.376 | -0.023 | +8.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.37 | +6.2 |
| 6 | NO | 38 | +0.120 | +0.084 | +0.035 | +4.5 | 3 / 0 | -14.1 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.23 | -6.7 |
| 7 | BAL | 50 | +0.340 | +0.245 | +0.095 | +17.0 | 2 / 0 | -8.4 | 3 | -3.5 | -0.01 | +3.6 |
| 8 | ATL | 49 | +0.153 | +0.181 | -0.027 | +7.5 | 2 / 0 | -7.5 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | +11.5 |
| 9 | KC | 33 | +0.251 | +0.231 | +0.020 | +8.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.8 | +0.26 | +3.2 |
| 10 | SF | 31 | -0.028 | -0.049 | +0.021 | -0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.2 | -0.11 | -8.5 |
| 12 | NYG | 30 | +0.520 | +0.557 | -0.038 | +15.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.31 | +12.6 |
| 13 | CAR | 37 | -0.290 | -0.228 | -0.062 | -10.7 | 2 / 0 | -10.1 | 4 | -6.4 | -0.05 | -2.3 |
| 14 | LV | 33 | +0.158 | +0.143 | +0.014 | +5.2 | 2 / 1 | -12.7 | 4 | -8.6 | -0.01 | -2.3 |
| 15 | LAC | 28 | +0.673 | +0.638 | +0.035 | +18.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.44 | +14.9 |
| 16 | DAL | 47 | +0.024 | +0.047 | -0.023 | +1.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 4 | -7.5 | -0.30 | +3.2 |
| 17 | CAR | 34 | +0.701 | +0.741 | -0.040 | +23.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.30 | +20.2 |
| 18 | NO | 33 | +0.327 | +0.285 | +0.042 | +10.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.69 | +2.9 |
| 19 | WAS | 19 | +0.675 | +0.710 | -0.035 | +12.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.7 | +0.52 | +20.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.