Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Baker Mayfield — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.008
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.001
Dropbacks
584
Turnover EPA
-60.5
WPA
-0.19
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 33 | +0.182 | +0.175 | +0.007 | +6.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.3 | +0.37 | -10.4 |
| 2 | HOU | 43 | +0.099 | -0.015 | +0.114 | +4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.4 | -0.15 | +1.9 |
| 3 | NYJ | 30 | +0.174 | +0.276 | -0.102 | +5.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.44 | +1.2 |
| 4 | PHI | 41 | -0.045 | -0.129 | +0.084 | -1.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.32 | -10.2 |
| 5 | SEA | 35 | +0.831 | +0.742 | +0.088 | +29.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.81 | +20.4 |
| 6 | SF | 24 | +0.476 | +0.503 | -0.027 | +11.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.27 | +7.5 |
| 7 | DET | 55 | -0.443 | -0.455 | +0.013 | -24.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 4 | -4.4 | -0.38 | -9.4 |
| 8 | NO | 27 | -0.043 | -0.066 | +0.023 | -1.2 | 0 / 1 | -4.2 | 3 | -6.9 | -0.03 | -9.6 |
| 10 | NE | 45 | +0.054 | +0.022 | +0.032 | +2.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | -0.37 | -2.5 |
| 11 | BUF | 31 | -0.263 | -0.289 | +0.026 | -8.1 | 1 / 1 | -9.5 | 1 | -4.8 | -0.24 | -8.3 |
| 12 | LA | 21 | -0.876 | -0.868 | -0.008 | -18.4 | 2 / 0 | -8.6 | 2 | -2.6 | -0.29 | -20.5 |
| 13 | ARI | 30 | -0.014 | +0.058 | -0.072 | -0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.05 | -0.6 |
| 14 | NO | 30 | -0.309 | -0.327 | +0.018 | -9.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.50 | -16.5 |
| 15 | ATL | 40 | +0.113 | +0.110 | +0.002 | +4.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 5 | -6.0 | +0.17 | -1.1 |
| 16 | CAR | 28 | +0.022 | +0.101 | -0.079 | +0.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.0 | 2 | -3.4 | -0.25 | +1.4 |
| 17 | MIA | 47 | -0.008 | +0.037 | -0.045 | -0.4 | 2 / 1 | -12.0 | 3 | -7.5 | -0.05 | +9.3 |
| 18 | CAR | 24 | +0.206 | +0.283 | -0.077 | +4.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 2 | -2.1 | +0.27 | +5.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.