Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Sam Darnold — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.160
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.174
Dropbacks
442
Turnover EPA
-77.1
WPA
-0.77
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 36 | -0.033 | +0.080 | -0.113 | -1.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.9 | +0.19 | +10.4 |
| 2 | NO | 40 | +0.381 | +0.273 | +0.109 | +15.3 | 1 / 0 | -6.3 | 2 | -3.7 | +0.38 | +2.8 |
| 3 | HOU | 37 | +0.236 | +0.324 | -0.088 | +8.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.6 | +0.36 | -0.3 |
| 4 | DAL | 44 | +0.047 | -0.036 | +0.083 | +2.1 | 2 / 0 | -10.0 | 5 | -7.2 | -0.12 | -0.3 |
| 5 | PHI | 40 | -0.481 | -0.449 | -0.032 | -19.2 | 3 / 0 | -12.6 | 3 | -5.3 | -0.52 | -4.7 |
| 6 | MIN | 46 | -0.343 | -0.349 | +0.007 | -15.8 | 1 / 1 | -11.2 | 4 | -9.6 | -0.37 | -20.3 |
| 7 | NYG | 28 | -0.394 | -0.376 | -0.018 | -11.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 3 | -4.5 | -0.39 | -5.8 |
| 8 | ATL | 24 | -0.014 | +0.055 | -0.069 | -0.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.02 | -13.9 |
| 9 | NE | 34 | -0.698 | -0.721 | +0.022 | -23.7 | 3 / 0 | -20.6 | 1 | -2.1 | -0.41 | -14.5 |
| 16 | TB | 36 | -0.264 | -0.320 | +0.055 | -9.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.3 | +0.04 | -14.4 |
| 17 | NO | 33 | -0.402 | -0.492 | +0.090 | -13.3 | 1 / 1 | -8.9 | 7 | -12.8 | -0.21 | -4.7 |
| 18 | TB | 44 | -0.064 | -0.124 | +0.061 | -2.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.30 | +1.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.