Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jake Browning — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.105
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.087
Dropbacks
268
Turnover EPA
-33.1
WPA
+1.05
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 1 | -1.159 | -1.247 | +0.088 | -1.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | -36.4 |
| 11 | BAL | 17 | -0.239 | -0.316 | +0.077 | -4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.1 | -0.11 | -5.9 |
| 12 | PIT | 30 | -0.104 | -0.092 | -0.012 | -3.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 4 | -7.5 | -0.04 | +2.3 |
| 13 | JAX | 39 | +0.500 | +0.500 | +0.000 | +19.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.3 | +0.69 | +19.9 |
| 14 | IND | 24 | +0.326 | +0.332 | -0.007 | +7.8 | 1 / 0 | -8.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.18 | +3.5 |
| 15 | MIN | 46 | +0.212 | +0.223 | -0.011 | +9.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 4 | -3.6 | +0.40 | +4.5 |
| 16 | PIT | 46 | -0.179 | -0.165 | -0.014 | -8.2 | 3 / 0 | -12.9 | 3 | -5.0 | -0.11 | -0.0 |
| 17 | KC | 39 | +0.063 | +0.002 | +0.062 | +2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -6.3 | -0.02 | -4.5 |
| 18 | CLE | 26 | +0.199 | +0.096 | +0.103 | +5.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 2 | -3.9 | +0.05 | +6.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.