Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Kyler Murray — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.117
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.115
Dropbacks
570
Turnover EPA
-45.2
WPA
-0.49
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 35 | -0.045 | -0.034 | -0.011 | -1.6 | 0 / 1 | -4.9 | 4 | -9.3 | -0.24 | +1.2 |
| 2 | LA | 22 | +0.833 | +0.823 | +0.010 | +18.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.12 | +17.5 |
| 3 | DET | 35 | -0.162 | -0.161 | -0.001 | -5.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.15 | -1.6 |
| 4 | WAS | 26 | -0.065 | -0.017 | -0.048 | -1.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.5 | -0.14 | +0.4 |
| 5 | SF | 31 | -0.036 | -0.059 | +0.023 | -1.1 | 1 / 0 | -6.1 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.06 | -2.2 |
| 6 | GB | 32 | +0.276 | +0.241 | +0.035 | +8.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.05 | -1.1 |
| 7 | LAC | 26 | +0.011 | -0.013 | +0.024 | +0.3 | 1 / 0 | -2.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.14 | -17.5 |
| 8 | MIA | 36 | +0.527 | +0.509 | +0.018 | +19.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.50 | +11.9 |
| 9 | CHI | 23 | -0.059 | -0.058 | -0.001 | -1.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.8 | -0.14 | -0.1 |
| 10 | NYJ | 25 | +0.772 | +0.719 | +0.053 | +19.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.35 | +18.1 |
| 12 | SEA | 42 | -0.149 | -0.126 | -0.023 | -6.3 | 1 / 0 | -8.4 | 5 | -6.7 | -0.31 | +3.2 |
| 13 | MIN | 45 | +0.062 | +0.017 | +0.045 | +2.8 | 2 / 0 | -2.7 | 1 | -0.8 | -0.09 | +1.9 |
| 14 | SEA | 40 | -0.133 | -0.111 | -0.022 | -5.3 | 2 / 0 | -9.0 | 2 | -4.9 | -0.21 | -7.2 |
| 15 | NE | 30 | +0.356 | +0.384 | -0.028 | +10.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.18 | +5.9 |
| 16 | CAR | 35 | -0.016 | +0.038 | -0.054 | -0.6 | 1 / 0 | -1.4 | 3 | -4.1 | -0.50 | -1.1 |
| 17 | LA | 52 | +0.035 | +0.043 | -0.008 | +1.8 | 2 / 0 | -6.3 | 4 | -6.3 | -0.31 | +2.6 |
| 18 | SF | 35 | +0.258 | +0.229 | +0.029 | +9.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.28 | +8.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.