Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Drew Lock — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.218
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.215
Dropbacks
193
Turnover EPA
-39.8
WPA
-1.46
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | PHI | 9 | -0.755 | -0.782 | +0.027 | -6.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | -0.00 | -31.2 |
| 12 | TB | 1 | -0.311 | -0.271 | -0.041 | -0.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | +25.9 |
| 13 | DAL | 38 | -0.580 | -0.547 | -0.033 | -22.0 | 1 / 1 | -13.9 | 6 | -14.1 | -0.73 | -1.0 |
| 14 | NO | 51 | -0.183 | -0.213 | +0.030 | -9.3 | 1 / 0 | -1.5 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.74 | -18.1 |
| 16 | ATL | 42 | -0.556 | -0.511 | -0.045 | -23.4 | 2 / 1 | -22.7 | 3 | -8.8 | -0.36 | -8.8 |
| 17 | IND | 23 | +1.197 | +1.201 | -0.005 | +27.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.59 | +10.7 |
| 18 | PHI | 29 | -0.267 | -0.299 | +0.032 | -7.7 | 1 / 0 | -1.7 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.23 | +4.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.