Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Daniel Jones — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.143
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.139
Dropbacks
258
Turnover EPA
-45.8
WPA
-0.87
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 33 | -0.326 | -0.291 | -0.035 | -10.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 2 | -5.3 | -0.23 | -5.1 |
| 2 | KC | 31 | +0.229 | +0.190 | +0.039 | +7.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.7 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.26 | +3.9 |
| 3 | HOU | 40 | -0.097 | -0.172 | +0.075 | -3.9 | 1 / 2 | -14.5 | 4 | -15.9 | -0.11 | -0.8 |
| 4 | WAS | 36 | -0.485 | -0.371 | -0.114 | -17.4 | 1 / 1 | -8.6 | 2 | -6.7 | -0.20 | -5.2 |
| 5 | PIT | 45 | +0.006 | -0.003 | +0.009 | +0.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | -0.04 | -4.4 |
| 6 | TEN | 47 | -0.168 | -0.085 | -0.082 | -7.9 | 2 / 0 | -8.8 | 6 | -7.9 | -0.34 | -8.0 |
| 7 | MIN | 26 | -0.167 | -0.299 | +0.131 | -4.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 4 | -6.6 | -0.20 | -10.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.