Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Tua Tagovailoa — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.235
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.228
Dropbacks
421
Turnover EPA
-40.6
WPA
+2.14
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 36 | +0.234 | +0.163 | +0.072 | +8.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.2 | +0.16 | +8.0 |
| 2 | BAL | 51 | +0.502 | +0.527 | -0.025 | +25.6 | 2 / 0 | -6.5 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.82 | +3.2 |
| 3 | BUF | 19 | +0.530 | +0.456 | +0.074 | +10.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.8 | +0.36 | +5.5 |
| 4 | CIN | 15 | -0.023 | -0.041 | +0.018 | -0.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.05 | -5.8 |
| 7 | PIT | 35 | +0.135 | +0.159 | -0.024 | +4.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.10 | -6.2 |
| 8 | DET | 38 | +0.578 | +0.660 | -0.082 | +22.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | +0.47 | +19.9 |
| 9 | CHI | 30 | +0.589 | +0.633 | -0.043 | +17.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.42 | +10.1 |
| 10 | CLE | 32 | +0.612 | +0.561 | +0.051 | +19.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | +8.6 |
| 12 | HOU | 39 | +0.184 | +0.202 | -0.018 | +7.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.7 | +0.14 | +3.1 |
| 13 | SF | 36 | -0.285 | -0.314 | +0.028 | -10.3 | 2 / 1 | -18.3 | 3 | -11.7 | -0.09 | -8.2 |
| 14 | LAC | 30 | -0.250 | -0.264 | +0.014 | -7.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.5 | -0.29 | -24.5 |
| 15 | BUF | 33 | +0.006 | -0.060 | +0.065 | +0.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.1 | -0.12 | -7.5 |
| 16 | GB | 27 | +0.056 | +0.035 | +0.021 | +1.5 | 3 / 0 | -13.0 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.08 | +3.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.