Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Tua Tagovailoa — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.196
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.171
Dropbacks
630
Turnover EPA
-68.3
WPA
+2.53
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 45 | +0.604 | +0.602 | +0.002 | +27.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 0 | +0.0 | +1.27 | +0.7 |
| 2 | NE | 31 | +0.407 | +0.363 | +0.044 | +12.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.6 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.17 | +8.0 |
| 3 | DEN | 26 | +1.021 | +1.014 | +0.006 | +26.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.36 | +16.5 |
| 4 | BUF | 40 | -0.078 | -0.111 | +0.033 | -3.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 4 | -9.4 | +0.09 | +6.4 |
| 5 | NYG | 30 | -0.072 | -0.068 | -0.004 | -2.1 | 2 / 0 | -16.4 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.09 | +9.3 |
| 6 | CAR | 31 | +0.523 | +0.520 | +0.003 | +16.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.51 | +6.5 |
| 7 | PHI | 35 | -0.112 | -0.110 | -0.002 | -3.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 3 | -2.7 | -0.04 | +6.3 |
| 8 | NE | 47 | +0.310 | +0.268 | +0.042 | +14.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.24 | -0.7 |
| 9 | KC | 37 | +0.073 | +0.014 | +0.059 | +2.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.1 | -0.27 | -1.7 |
| 11 | LV | 40 | +0.091 | +0.119 | -0.028 | +3.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 1 | -0.8 | +0.00 | +9.0 |
| 12 | NYJ | 31 | +0.232 | +0.144 | +0.087 | +7.2 | 2 / 0 | -8.1 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.05 | +5.2 |
| 13 | WAS | 24 | +0.772 | +0.820 | -0.048 | +18.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.27 | +8.5 |
| 14 | TEN | 38 | -0.242 | -0.196 | -0.046 | -9.2 | 0 / 1 | -5.7 | 5 | -12.2 | -0.46 | +2.1 |
| 15 | NYJ | 27 | +0.433 | +0.342 | +0.091 | +11.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.06 | +13.5 |
| 16 | DAL | 38 | +0.228 | +0.192 | +0.036 | +8.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.38 | +1.9 |
| 17 | BAL | 42 | +0.041 | -0.033 | +0.074 | +1.7 | 2 / 0 | -9.9 | 3 | -4.2 | +0.09 | -5.1 |
| 18 | BUF | 27 | +0.082 | +0.046 | +0.035 | +2.2 | 2 / 0 | -3.6 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.07 | +0.5 |
| 19 | KC | 41 | -0.287 | -0.340 | +0.053 | -11.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.1 | 2 | -2.4 | -0.22 | -16.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.