Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Tua Tagovailoa — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.026
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.034
Dropbacks
415
Turnover EPA
-56.5
WPA
+0.04
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 27 | -0.571 | -0.532 | -0.039 | -15.4 | 2 / 1 | -12.5 | 3 | -8.7 | -0.22 | -7.6 |
| 2 | NE | 37 | +0.306 | +0.268 | +0.038 | +11.3 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 5 | -6.4 | +0.11 | +13.7 |
| 3 | BUF | 34 | +0.033 | +0.004 | +0.029 | +1.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | -1.7 |
| 4 | NYJ | 25 | +0.315 | +0.415 | -0.100 | +7.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.29 | -1.7 |
| 5 | CAR | 39 | +0.216 | +0.294 | -0.078 | +8.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.6 | +0.26 | +14.8 |
| 6 | LAC | 34 | +0.072 | -0.001 | +0.073 | +2.5 | 3 / 0 | -6.9 | 2 | -3.9 | -0.03 | +2.0 |
| 7 | CLE | 25 | -0.895 | -0.940 | +0.044 | -22.4 | 3 / 0 | -17.0 | 2 | -2.1 | -0.24 | -12.5 |
| 8 | ATL | 27 | +0.361 | +0.356 | +0.005 | +9.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.05 | +1.9 |
| 9 | BAL | 41 | +0.092 | +0.085 | +0.006 | +3.8 | 1 / 0 | -1.2 | 2 | -1.7 | -0.11 | -3.0 |
| 10 | BUF | 21 | +0.467 | +0.429 | +0.038 | +9.8 | 2 / 0 | -2.1 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.18 | +5.9 |
| 11 | WAS | 23 | +0.003 | +0.085 | -0.083 | +0.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.2 | -0.16 | +2.1 |
| 13 | NO | 26 | -0.305 | -0.321 | +0.015 | -7.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 4 | -5.9 | -0.12 | -1.3 |
| 14 | NYJ | 22 | -0.035 | +0.076 | -0.110 | -0.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.06 | -9.2 |
| 15 | PIT | 34 | +0.077 | +0.078 | -0.000 | +2.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 4 | -5.9 | -0.09 | +15.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.