Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jordan Love — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.133
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.119
Dropbacks
477
Turnover EPA
-62.4
WPA
+1.06
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 35 | +0.121 | +0.080 | +0.040 | +4.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 1 | +0.4 | +0.06 | -10.0 |
| 4 | MIN | 56 | -0.047 | -0.090 | +0.042 | -2.6 | 3 / 0 | -14.0 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.04 | -1.3 |
| 5 | LA | 28 | -0.034 | -0.027 | -0.008 | -1.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.9 | 2 | -4.5 | +0.13 | -12.4 |
| 6 | ARI | 32 | +0.402 | +0.464 | -0.062 | +12.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.17 | +4.2 |
| 7 | HOU | 36 | +0.019 | -0.017 | +0.036 | +0.7 | 2 / 0 | -10.8 | 3 | -4.4 | +0.01 | +6.1 |
| 8 | JAX | 22 | +0.069 | +0.131 | -0.062 | +1.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.02 | +3.3 |
| 9 | DET | 40 | -0.078 | -0.077 | -0.001 | -3.1 | 1 / 0 | -7.8 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.31 | -0.2 |
| 11 | CHI | 18 | +0.741 | +0.726 | +0.015 | +13.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.54 | +12.6 |
| 12 | SF | 25 | +0.295 | +0.265 | +0.029 | +7.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | +0.03 | -2.2 |
| 13 | MIA | 28 | +0.470 | +0.452 | +0.017 | +13.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.07 | +7.0 |
| 14 | DET | 21 | +0.329 | +0.319 | +0.010 | +6.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.37 | +2.5 |
| 15 | SEA | 27 | +0.390 | +0.399 | -0.009 | +10.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.26 | +13.3 |
| 16 | NO | 28 | +0.153 | +0.116 | +0.037 | +4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.12 | -4.4 |
| 17 | MIN | 34 | +0.067 | +0.022 | +0.045 | +2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.5 | -0.07 | +1.8 |
| 18 | CHI | 12 | -0.238 | -0.233 | -0.005 | -2.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.08 | -12.0 |
| 19 | PHI | 35 | -0.122 | -0.157 | +0.036 | -4.3 | 3 / 0 | -8.5 | 2 | -3.5 | -0.19 | -5.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.