Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Justin Herbert — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.166
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.171
Dropbacks
709
Turnover EPA
-79.5
WPA
+4.22
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 49 | +0.210 | +0.212 | -0.002 | +10.3 | 1 / 1 | -10.3 | 2 | -7.0 | +0.34 | +3.6 |
| 2 | DAL | 43 | +0.169 | +0.084 | +0.085 | +7.3 | 2 / 0 | -9.8 | 2 | -3.9 | +0.31 | +7.4 |
| 3 | KC | 40 | +0.388 | +0.406 | -0.018 | +15.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.63 | +8.0 |
| 4 | LV | 40 | +0.062 | +0.126 | -0.064 | +2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.3 | +0.14 | +0.1 |
| 5 | CLE | 46 | +0.394 | +0.375 | +0.019 | +18.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.4 | +0.82 | -6.0 |
| 6 | BAL | 41 | -0.364 | -0.345 | -0.019 | -14.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 2 | -3.5 | -0.09 | -12.4 |
| 8 | NE | 38 | -0.169 | -0.204 | +0.034 | -6.4 | 2 / 0 | -11.2 | 3 | -3.3 | -0.54 | -15.1 |
| 9 | PHI | 38 | +0.582 | +0.591 | -0.009 | +22.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.84 | +16.8 |
| 10 | MIN | 36 | -0.177 | -0.186 | +0.009 | -6.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 2 | -5.1 | -0.11 | -10.6 |
| 11 | PIT | 43 | +0.416 | +0.352 | +0.065 | +17.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 2 | -2.0 | +0.43 | -1.9 |
| 12 | DEN | 48 | -0.033 | -0.041 | +0.008 | -1.6 | 2 / 0 | -14.2 | 3 | -3.9 | -0.08 | -3.4 |
| 13 | CIN | 39 | +0.276 | +0.285 | -0.008 | +10.8 | 1 / 0 | -0.3 | 4 | -6.0 | +0.01 | +14.0 |
| 14 | NYG | 33 | +0.440 | +0.435 | +0.005 | +14.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.19 | +8.2 |
| 15 | KC | 38 | -0.126 | -0.098 | -0.028 | -4.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.02 | -5.8 |
| 16 | HOU | 38 | +0.147 | +0.239 | -0.092 | +5.6 | 2 / 0 | -12.5 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.31 | +8.0 |
| 17 | DEN | 31 | +0.499 | +0.480 | +0.019 | +15.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | +2.5 |
| 18 | LV | 68 | +0.174 | +0.234 | -0.060 | +11.8 | 1 / 0 | -2.7 | 3 | -5.8 | +0.88 | -12.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.