Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Justin Herbert — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.024
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.041
Dropbacks
782
Turnover EPA
-66.5
WPA
+0.88
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 34 | +0.373 | +0.440 | -0.067 | +12.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.27 | +6.4 |
| 2 | KC | 50 | -0.029 | -0.018 | -0.010 | -1.4 | 1 / 0 | -13.0 | 2 | -3.6 | -0.27 | +4.2 |
| 3 | JAX | 46 | -0.262 | -0.197 | -0.065 | -12.0 | 1 / 1 | -11.3 | 1 | -5.0 | -0.17 | -6.7 |
| 4 | HOU | 40 | +0.409 | +0.418 | -0.009 | +16.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.43 | +4.2 |
| 5 | CLE | 35 | +0.169 | +0.126 | +0.043 | +5.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | -0.04 | +0.3 |
| 6 | DEN | 59 | -0.245 | -0.267 | +0.021 | -14.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 2 | -3.7 | -0.79 | -5.3 |
| 7 | SEA | 54 | -0.236 | -0.192 | -0.044 | -12.8 | 1 / 1 | -11.9 | 3 | -10.5 | -0.16 | -4.9 |
| 9 | ATL | 43 | +0.037 | +0.116 | -0.078 | +1.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.47 | -1.4 |
| 10 | SF | 37 | -0.147 | -0.181 | +0.034 | -5.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.0 | 2 | -2.1 | -0.20 | -2.5 |
| 11 | KC | 35 | +0.188 | +0.193 | -0.004 | +6.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.1 | 5 | -6.1 | +0.10 | +10.8 |
| 12 | ARI | 52 | +0.049 | +0.061 | -0.011 | +2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -8.4 | +0.46 | +4.9 |
| 13 | LV | 52 | -0.091 | -0.010 | -0.081 | -4.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.3 | -0.12 | -4.3 |
| 14 | MIA | 55 | +0.041 | +0.031 | +0.011 | +2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.0 | +0.23 | +7.9 |
| 15 | TEN | 43 | -0.178 | -0.173 | -0.005 | -7.7 | 2 / 0 | -7.3 | 3 | -6.7 | +0.06 | +2.7 |
| 16 | IND | 35 | -0.098 | -0.084 | -0.013 | -3.4 | 1 / 1 | -9.8 | 4 | -8.8 | +0.06 | +10.9 |
| 17 | LA | 28 | +0.381 | +0.365 | +0.016 | +10.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.16 | +6.8 |
| 18 | DEN | 38 | +0.443 | +0.406 | +0.037 | +16.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.28 | -2.0 |
| 19 | JAX | 46 | +0.110 | +0.166 | -0.056 | +5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -1.5 | +0.08 | -7.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.