Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jalen Hurts — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.127
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.131
Dropbacks
503
Turnover EPA
-37.3
WPA
+1.38
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 35 | +0.344 | +0.306 | +0.039 | +12.1 | 2 / 0 | -5.7 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.29 | +1.2 |
| 2 | ATL | 31 | +0.031 | +0.058 | -0.027 | +1.0 | 1 / 0 | -0.7 | 1 | -1.1 | -0.30 | +13.7 |
| 3 | NO | 42 | -0.090 | -0.120 | +0.030 | -3.8 | 1 / 1 | -10.5 | 4 | -12.4 | +0.13 | +9.9 |
| 4 | TB | 36 | -0.338 | -0.294 | -0.044 | -12.2 | 0 / 1 | -5.7 | 6 | -14.3 | -0.08 | -3.6 |
| 6 | CLE | 26 | +0.332 | +0.275 | +0.057 | +8.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.21 | +2.3 |
| 7 | NYG | 18 | -0.168 | -0.115 | -0.053 | -3.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.0 | -0.04 | +9.8 |
| 8 | CIN | 20 | +0.719 | +0.720 | -0.001 | +14.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.48 | +19.5 |
| 9 | JAX | 28 | +0.089 | +0.149 | -0.060 | +2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.3 | -0.03 | +12.4 |
| 10 | DAL | 25 | -0.219 | -0.192 | -0.027 | -5.5 | 1 / 1 | -12.2 | 5 | -12.2 | -0.09 | +19.4 |
| 11 | WAS | 30 | -0.016 | +0.029 | -0.045 | -0.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.2 | +0.04 | +2.9 |
| 12 | LA | 23 | +0.325 | +0.325 | +0.000 | +7.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.4 | +0.29 | +9.5 |
| 13 | BAL | 21 | +0.015 | -0.075 | +0.090 | +0.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.5 | -0.02 | -2.2 |
| 14 | CAR | 25 | -0.128 | -0.072 | -0.056 | -3.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.8 | +0.03 | +4.8 |
| 15 | PIT | 35 | +0.635 | +0.609 | +0.026 | +22.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -1.7 | +0.34 | +13.6 |
| 16 | WAS | 4 | -0.568 | -0.520 | -0.048 | -2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.05 | -27.9 |
| 19 | GB | 23 | +0.053 | +0.023 | +0.030 | +1.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | +0.07 | +3.3 |
| 20 | LA | 27 | -0.189 | -0.176 | -0.012 | -5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 7 | -11.9 | -0.24 | +4.6 |
| 21 | WAS | 30 | +0.498 | +0.534 | -0.036 | +14.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.1 | +0.18 | +15.4 |
| 22 | KC | 24 | +0.614 | +0.587 | +0.028 | +14.7 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 2 | -2.3 | +0.16 | +9.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.