Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Joe Burrow — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.124
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.137
Dropbacks
732
Turnover EPA
-95.2
WPA
+4.40
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 31 | +0.145 | +0.128 | +0.016 | +4.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -9.1 | +0.49 | +11.1 |
| 2 | CHI | 35 | -0.250 | -0.256 | +0.006 | -8.8 | 3 / 0 | -19.1 | 5 | -3.6 | -0.23 | -0.1 |
| 3 | PIT | 18 | +0.523 | +0.461 | +0.062 | +9.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.29 | +12.1 |
| 4 | JAX | 33 | +0.409 | +0.533 | -0.124 | +13.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.89 | +10.7 |
| 5 | GB | 42 | +0.081 | +0.057 | +0.024 | +3.4 | 2 / 0 | -9.5 | 3 | -4.9 | +0.11 | +2.5 |
| 6 | DET | 31 | +0.200 | +0.338 | -0.138 | +6.2 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 2 | -4.9 | +0.12 | -2.8 |
| 7 | BAL | 38 | +0.520 | +0.518 | +0.002 | +19.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.75 | +3.8 |
| 8 | NYJ | 37 | -0.122 | -0.009 | -0.113 | -4.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 3 | -7.5 | +0.10 | +2.6 |
| 9 | CLE | 45 | -0.318 | -0.319 | +0.000 | -14.3 | 2 / 0 | -17.9 | 5 | -7.4 | -0.23 | +9.3 |
| 11 | LV | 32 | +0.025 | +0.087 | -0.062 | +0.8 | 0 / 1 | -6.3 | 3 | -8.8 | +0.11 | +1.9 |
| 12 | PIT | 26 | +0.143 | +0.088 | +0.055 | +3.7 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 2 | -4.6 | +0.07 | +20.3 |
| 13 | LAC | 46 | -0.141 | -0.130 | -0.010 | -6.5 | 2 / 1 | -12.8 | 6 | -13.8 | -0.13 | +0.7 |
| 14 | SF | 39 | +0.298 | +0.278 | +0.020 | +11.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -8.9 | +0.72 | +5.5 |
| 15 | DEN | 26 | -0.214 | -0.220 | +0.007 | -5.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.6 | +0.01 | +1.6 |
| 16 | BAL | 49 | +0.669 | +0.662 | +0.006 | +32.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.5 | +0.50 | +14.2 |
| 17 | KC | 43 | +0.541 | +0.556 | -0.015 | +23.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.3 | +0.89 | +13.0 |
| 19 | LV | 36 | +0.219 | +0.278 | -0.059 | +7.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | +0.33 | +11.2 |
| 20 | TEN | 45 | -0.131 | -0.111 | -0.020 | -5.9 | 1 / 0 | -6.4 | 9 | -14.2 | -0.10 | +6.4 |
| 21 | KC | 40 | +0.076 | +0.098 | -0.022 | +3.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.10 | -1.8 |
| 22 | LA | 40 | -0.095 | -0.193 | +0.098 | -3.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 7 | -11.5 | -0.40 | -3.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.