Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Joe Burrow — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.141
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.132
Dropbacks
278
Turnover EPA
-44.0
WPA
+0.18
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 26 | +0.048 | -0.013 | +0.061 | +1.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.2 | +0.01 | -1.9 |
| 2 | JAX | 15 | +0.029 | +0.013 | +0.016 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.08 | -0.8 |
| 13 | BAL | 47 | +0.139 | +0.131 | +0.008 | +6.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.10 | -6.0 |
| 14 | BUF | 38 | +0.248 | +0.215 | +0.033 | +9.4 | 2 / 0 | -15.6 | 1 | -1.1 | -0.06 | +7.0 |
| 15 | BAL | 42 | -0.331 | -0.327 | -0.004 | -13.9 | 2 / 0 | -15.8 | 3 | -5.1 | -0.27 | +2.6 |
| 16 | MIA | 34 | +0.572 | +0.605 | -0.033 | +19.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.4 | +0.43 | +15.8 |
| 17 | ARI | 34 | +0.498 | +0.560 | -0.062 | +16.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.5 | +0.26 | +13.5 |
| 18 | CLE | 42 | -0.021 | -0.082 | +0.061 | -0.9 | 1 / 0 | -12.6 | 2 | -3.0 | -0.38 | +6.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.