Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Justin Fields — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.207
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.213
Dropbacks
304
Turnover EPA
-59.7
WPA
-0.88
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 2 | +0.294 | +0.199 | +0.095 | +0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.01 | +24.8 |
| 2 | CIN | 15 | -0.662 | -0.644 | -0.019 | -9.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.1 | 2 | -3.6 | -0.19 | -8.3 |
| 3 | CLE | 29 | -0.763 | -0.753 | -0.010 | -22.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 9 | -16.7 | -0.34 | -38.8 |
| 4 | DET | 18 | +0.037 | +0.179 | -0.141 | +0.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.0 | 1 | -2.6 | +0.06 | +9.2 |
| 5 | LV | 21 | +0.168 | +0.227 | -0.058 | +3.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.6 | +0.26 | -0.9 |
| 6 | GB | 31 | -0.115 | -0.136 | +0.021 | -3.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.3 | 4 | -6.5 | -0.14 | -0.3 |
| 7 | TB | 36 | -0.659 | -0.708 | +0.049 | -23.7 | 3 / 2 | -21.7 | 4 | -14.6 | -0.29 | +2.4 |
| 8 | SF | 31 | +0.110 | +0.088 | +0.022 | +3.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.3 | 4 | -5.3 | +0.16 | +4.8 |
| 9 | PIT | 32 | +0.196 | +0.140 | +0.056 | +6.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 3 | -4.2 | +0.28 | +6.2 |
| 11 | BAL | 13 | -0.389 | -0.378 | -0.011 | -5.1 | 0 / 1 | -4.8 | 2 | -6.1 | -0.20 | -16.8 |
| 14 | GB | 35 | -0.304 | -0.323 | +0.019 | -10.6 | 2 / 1 | -15.8 | 2 | -6.2 | -0.26 | -7.3 |
| 15 | MIN | 41 | -0.057 | -0.070 | +0.013 | -2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -8.5 | -0.23 | +5.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.