Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Justin Fields — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.119
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.093
Dropbacks
233
Turnover EPA
-9.3
WPA
-1.53
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 24 | +0.427 | +0.419 | +0.009 | +10.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.03 | +10.4 |
| 2 | BUF | 13 | -0.712 | -0.733 | +0.021 | -9.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.9 | -0.13 | -37.6 |
| 4 | MIA | 29 | +0.156 | +0.193 | -0.038 | +4.5 | 0 / 1 | -3.9 | 2 | -4.8 | -0.06 | +5.1 |
| 5 | DAL | 52 | -0.030 | +0.084 | -0.114 | -1.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -8.0 | -0.15 | +5.1 |
| 6 | DEN | 26 | -0.714 | -0.797 | +0.083 | -18.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 9 | -13.3 | -1.06 | -14.8 |
| 7 | CAR | 15 | -0.709 | -0.616 | -0.093 | -10.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.4 | -0.23 | -15.4 |
| 8 | CIN | 32 | +0.425 | +0.478 | -0.054 | +13.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | +3.8 |
| 10 | CLE | 14 | -0.676 | -0.727 | +0.050 | -9.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 3 | -3.2 | -0.12 | -13.7 |
| 11 | NE | 28 | -0.235 | -0.265 | +0.030 | -6.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.2 | -0.12 | -4.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.