Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Mac Jones — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.102
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.095
Dropbacks
590
Turnover EPA
-86.0
WPA
+0.64
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 40 | +0.379 | +0.313 | +0.066 | +15.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.38 | +7.6 |
| 2 | NYJ | 33 | -0.251 | -0.133 | -0.118 | -8.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.4 | -0.09 | +5.4 |
| 3 | NO | 53 | -0.224 | -0.319 | +0.094 | -11.9 | 3 / 0 | -16.3 | 2 | -3.7 | -0.32 | -1.0 |
| 4 | TB | 44 | +0.124 | +0.057 | +0.067 | +5.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 4 | -5.6 | +0.08 | +7.7 |
| 5 | HOU | 30 | +0.209 | +0.299 | -0.090 | +6.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.35 | +12.9 |
| 6 | DAL | 24 | -0.056 | -0.135 | +0.079 | -1.3 | 1 / 1 | -13.0 | 2 | -7.6 | -0.15 | +6.9 |
| 7 | NYJ | 37 | +0.318 | +0.417 | -0.099 | +11.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.5 | +0.13 | -0.6 |
| 8 | LAC | 37 | -0.036 | -0.030 | -0.006 | -1.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.4 | -0.15 | -11.0 |
| 9 | CAR | 20 | -0.186 | -0.181 | -0.006 | -3.7 | 1 / 1 | -10.8 | 2 | -6.4 | +0.00 | -1.3 |
| 10 | CLE | 25 | +0.677 | +0.647 | +0.030 | +16.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.7 | +0.28 | +18.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 29 | -0.169 | -0.091 | -0.078 | -4.9 | 1 / 0 | -6.4 | 3 | -5.6 | -0.00 | +12.2 |
| 12 | TEN | 34 | +0.413 | +0.422 | -0.009 | +14.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.0 | +0.34 | +8.3 |
| 13 | BUF | 3 | +0.085 | +0.012 | +0.073 | +0.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.05 | -5.5 |
| 15 | IND | 46 | -0.008 | -0.016 | +0.009 | -0.3 | 2 / 0 | -10.5 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.14 | -4.5 |
| 16 | BUF | 33 | -0.023 | -0.094 | +0.071 | -0.7 | 2 / 0 | -4.9 | 1 | -2.1 | -0.18 | -18.9 |
| 17 | JAX | 30 | +0.452 | +0.574 | -0.121 | +13.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | +10.0 |
| 18 | MIA | 32 | +0.105 | +0.046 | +0.059 | +3.4 | 1 / 0 | -8.1 | 2 | -3.0 | -0.23 | -1.8 |
| 19 | BUF | 40 | +0.153 | +0.078 | +0.075 | +6.1 | 2 / 0 | -9.7 | 3 | -4.2 | -0.09 | +4.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.