Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Mac Jones — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.154
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.149
Dropbacks
368
Turnover EPA
-71.7
WPA
-1.82
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 57 | -0.135 | -0.133 | -0.002 | -7.7 | 1 / 0 | -9.1 | 2 | -2.1 | -0.66 | -3.1 |
| 2 | MIA | 46 | -0.078 | -0.052 | -0.026 | -3.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 4 | -5.6 | -0.35 | +7.4 |
| 3 | NYJ | 29 | +0.277 | +0.188 | +0.090 | +8.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.11 | -4.9 |
| 4 | DAL | 22 | -0.565 | -0.584 | +0.019 | -12.4 | 2 / 1 | -18.5 | 1 | -5.8 | -0.08 | -16.7 |
| 5 | NO | 24 | -0.743 | -0.778 | +0.035 | -17.8 | 2 / 0 | -11.0 | 2 | -2.1 | -0.30 | -12.4 |
| 6 | LV | 36 | -0.121 | -0.089 | -0.032 | -4.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 3 | -5.1 | -0.25 | +1.7 |
| 7 | BUF | 31 | +0.471 | +0.427 | +0.044 | +14.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.66 | +9.5 |
| 8 | MIA | 32 | -0.319 | -0.285 | -0.033 | -10.2 | 1 / 0 | -6.8 | 3 | -4.4 | -0.15 | -0.7 |
| 9 | WAS | 44 | -0.207 | -0.137 | -0.070 | -9.1 | 1 / 0 | -1.9 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.33 | -12.1 |
| 10 | IND | 25 | -0.159 | -0.145 | -0.014 | -4.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 5 | -7.4 | -0.20 | +5.3 |
| 12 | NYG | 22 | -0.464 | -0.451 | -0.013 | -10.2 | 2 / 0 | -10.8 | 1 | -0.5 | -0.25 | -13.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.