Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Zach Wilson — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.222
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.223
Dropbacks
429
Turnover EPA
-51.3
WPA
-1.60
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 44 | -0.180 | -0.175 | -0.005 | -7.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 6 | -9.3 | -0.29 | -9.9 |
| 2 | NE | 37 | -0.614 | -0.641 | +0.027 | -22.7 | 4 / 0 | -15.5 | 4 | -6.0 | -0.45 | -7.4 |
| 3 | DEN | 40 | -0.611 | -0.603 | -0.008 | -24.4 | 2 / 0 | -9.8 | 5 | -8.3 | -0.19 | -8.9 |
| 4 | TEN | 35 | +0.247 | +0.260 | -0.013 | +8.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.68 | -4.1 |
| 5 | ATL | 35 | -0.216 | -0.137 | -0.079 | -7.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 2 | -3.6 | -0.04 | -4.1 |
| 7 | NE | 11 | +0.066 | +0.027 | +0.039 | +0.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | -0.02 | -3.8 |
| 12 | HOU | 28 | -0.440 | -0.335 | -0.106 | -12.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 4 | -8.3 | -0.29 | -13.5 |
| 13 | PHI | 40 | +0.005 | +0.026 | -0.022 | +0.2 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.09 | -3.4 |
| 14 | NO | 45 | -0.250 | -0.342 | +0.093 | -11.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.6 | -0.48 | -21.0 |
| 15 | MIA | 29 | -0.352 | -0.401 | +0.049 | -10.2 | 0 / 1 | -5.9 | 6 | -13.1 | -0.35 | -12.9 |
| 16 | JAX | 23 | -0.163 | -0.033 | -0.130 | -3.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.06 | -3.0 |
| 17 | TB | 34 | +0.317 | +0.247 | +0.070 | +10.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.04 | -4.6 |
| 18 | BUF | 28 | -0.544 | -0.603 | +0.059 | -15.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 8 | -14.3 | -0.37 | -31.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.