Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Zach Wilson — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.132
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.137
Dropbacks
265
Turnover EPA
-33.9
WPA
-0.84
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | PIT | 37 | +0.005 | +0.031 | -0.026 | +0.2 | 2 / 0 | -8.8 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.16 | -6.8 |
| 5 | MIA | 23 | +0.051 | +0.038 | +0.013 | +1.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.8 | +0.01 | +0.6 |
| 6 | GB | 20 | -0.177 | -0.191 | +0.014 | -3.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.10 | -9.8 |
| 7 | DEN | 29 | -0.349 | -0.369 | +0.020 | -10.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.3 | -0.20 | -4.2 |
| 8 | NE | 43 | +0.013 | -0.054 | +0.066 | +0.5 | 3 / 0 | -12.7 | 2 | -3.5 | -0.05 | -5.1 |
| 9 | BUF | 27 | +0.002 | -0.066 | +0.068 | +0.0 | 0 / 1 | -5.1 | 2 | -6.9 | -0.08 | +4.7 |
| 11 | NE | 26 | -0.418 | -0.477 | +0.059 | -10.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.1 | -0.49 | -22.4 |
| 15 | DET | 39 | -0.080 | +0.019 | -0.099 | -3.1 | 1 / 0 | -7.2 | 4 | -4.5 | +0.13 | -2.4 |
| 16 | JAX | 21 | -0.443 | -0.379 | -0.064 | -9.3 | 1 / 0 | -0.0 | 3 | -4.0 | -0.22 | -10.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.