Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Sam Howell — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.159
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.153
Dropbacks
679
Turnover EPA
-109.9
WPA
-1.67
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 37 | -0.456 | -0.363 | -0.094 | -16.9 | 1 / 1 | -12.2 | 6 | -14.2 | -0.49 | -6.9 |
| 2 | DEN | 43 | +0.152 | +0.169 | -0.016 | +6.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -8.8 | +0.21 | +8.9 |
| 3 | BUF | 38 | -0.677 | -0.696 | +0.019 | -25.7 | 4 / 0 | -17.3 | 9 | -11.1 | -0.31 | +0.0 |
| 4 | PHI | 46 | +0.174 | +0.168 | +0.006 | +8.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -6.9 | +0.27 | +10.4 |
| 5 | CHI | 57 | -0.008 | +0.048 | -0.055 | -0.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 5 | -6.1 | -0.06 | +11.7 |
| 6 | ATL | 28 | -0.047 | -0.007 | -0.040 | -1.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -6.0 | +0.09 | +1.9 |
| 7 | NYG | 48 | -0.315 | -0.306 | -0.009 | -15.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 6 | -10.4 | -0.42 | -3.2 |
| 8 | PHI | 53 | +0.071 | +0.068 | +0.003 | +3.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 1 | -3.5 | -0.04 | +8.4 |
| 9 | NE | 48 | +0.144 | +0.105 | +0.039 | +6.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 3 | -4.2 | +0.03 | +1.7 |
| 10 | SEA | 47 | +0.202 | +0.248 | -0.046 | +9.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.5 | +0.35 | -2.8 |
| 11 | NYG | 49 | -0.184 | -0.181 | -0.003 | -9.0 | 3 / 0 | -12.7 | 4 | -4.2 | -0.50 | +4.6 |
| 12 | DAL | 48 | -0.232 | -0.257 | +0.026 | -11.1 | 1 / 0 | -9.5 | 4 | -8.4 | -0.06 | -6.0 |
| 13 | MIA | 27 | -0.516 | -0.482 | -0.034 | -13.9 | 1 / 0 | -9.3 | 3 | -5.0 | -0.27 | -8.2 |
| 15 | LA | 27 | -0.487 | -0.466 | -0.021 | -13.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 1 | -1.0 | -0.24 | -22.6 |
| 16 | NYJ | 23 | -0.947 | -1.021 | +0.074 | -21.8 | 2 / 0 | -10.2 | 1 | -2.3 | -0.25 | -42.0 |
| 17 | SF | 29 | -0.270 | -0.332 | +0.062 | -7.8 | 2 / 0 | -8.0 | 1 | -2.9 | -0.07 | -1.0 |
| 18 | DAL | 31 | -0.194 | -0.220 | +0.026 | -6.0 | 2 / 0 | -5.7 | 4 | -6.4 | +0.08 | +0.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.