Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Brock Purdy — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.230
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.233
Dropbacks
249
Turnover EPA
-18.2
WPA
+1.71
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | KC | 9 | +0.003 | +0.012 | -0.009 | +0.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | -17.2 |
| 13 | MIA | 40 | +0.027 | +0.016 | +0.011 | +1.1 | 1 / 0 | -1.4 | 3 | -5.8 | +0.16 | -0.3 |
| 14 | TB | 21 | +0.425 | +0.407 | +0.018 | +8.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.15 | +8.5 |
| 15 | SEA | 27 | +0.214 | +0.248 | -0.034 | +5.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.08 | -5.0 |
| 16 | WAS | 25 | +0.266 | +0.269 | -0.003 | +6.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.7 | 3 | -5.4 | +0.18 | +2.4 |
| 17 | LV | 35 | +0.151 | +0.224 | -0.073 | +5.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.48 | -3.8 |
| 18 | ARI | 24 | +0.241 | +0.249 | -0.008 | +5.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.2 | +0.20 | +4.3 |
| 19 | SEA | 32 | +0.681 | +0.704 | -0.022 | +21.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.39 | +5.0 |
| 20 | DAL | 31 | +0.207 | +0.116 | +0.091 | +6.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.3 | +0.16 | +4.7 |
| 21 | PHI | 5 | -0.916 | -0.955 | +0.040 | -4.6 | 0 / 1 | -4.8 | 1 | -4.8 | -0.09 | +19.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.