Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Brock Purdy — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.158
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.162
Dropbacks
482
Turnover EPA
-65.9
WPA
+1.42
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 31 | +0.248 | +0.210 | +0.039 | +7.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.17 | +1.2 |
| 2 | MIN | 42 | +0.057 | +0.013 | +0.043 | +2.4 | 1 / 1 | -9.2 | 6 | -11.3 | -0.06 | +8.4 |
| 3 | LA | 31 | +0.462 | +0.462 | +0.000 | +14.3 | 0 / 1 | -3.1 | 1 | -3.1 | +0.20 | +8.3 |
| 4 | NE | 28 | +0.223 | +0.248 | -0.026 | +6.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.07 | +2.8 |
| 5 | ARI | 37 | -0.099 | -0.024 | -0.075 | -3.7 | 2 / 0 | -7.8 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.09 | -2.8 |
| 6 | SEA | 28 | +0.411 | +0.419 | -0.008 | +11.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.14 | +1.1 |
| 7 | KC | 33 | -0.315 | -0.324 | +0.009 | -10.4 | 3 / 0 | -13.4 | 1 | -1.0 | -0.36 | -9.6 |
| 8 | DAL | 28 | +0.244 | +0.261 | -0.017 | +6.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | +0.21 | +2.9 |
| 10 | TB | 38 | +0.416 | +0.443 | -0.027 | +15.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.5 | +0.79 | +8.7 |
| 11 | SEA | 30 | +0.010 | +0.026 | -0.016 | +0.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 2 | -2.2 | +0.18 | +2.0 |
| 13 | BUF | 19 | -0.364 | -0.341 | -0.023 | -6.9 | 0 / 1 | -4.4 | 2 | -6.6 | -0.07 | -8.1 |
| 14 | CHI | 26 | +0.895 | +0.876 | +0.018 | +23.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.31 | +16.9 |
| 15 | LA | 34 | -0.327 | -0.311 | -0.016 | -11.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 3 | -3.3 | -0.47 | -20.0 |
| 16 | MIA | 41 | +0.149 | +0.139 | +0.010 | +6.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 3 | -4.5 | +0.03 | -1.4 |
| 17 | DET | 36 | +0.385 | +0.372 | +0.013 | +13.9 | 2 / 0 | -11.3 | 2 | -2.3 | +0.37 | +17.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.