Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.327
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.334
Dropbacks
117
Turnover EPA
-16.6
WPA
-0.63
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | BAL | 40 | -0.623 | -0.684 | +0.061 | -24.9 | 3 / 0 | -14.0 | 4 | -7.1 | -0.41 | -9.8 |
| 8 | SEA | 1 | +0.640 | +0.695 | -0.055 | +0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.03 | +42.7 |
| 11 | PIT | 42 | -0.236 | -0.221 | -0.016 | -9.9 | 1 / 0 | -2.6 | 1 | -0.8 | -0.28 | -14.0 |
| 12 | DEN | 30 | -0.060 | -0.032 | -0.028 | -1.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.04 | -11.4 |
| 15 | CHI | 1 | +2.000 | +2.064 | -0.064 | +2.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.07 | +13.5 |
| 16 | HOU | 3 | -1.409 | -1.431 | +0.022 | -4.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -4.2 | +0.00 | -37.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.