Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Will Levis — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.191
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.190
Dropbacks
344
Turnover EPA
-68.4
WPA
-2.99
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 35 | -0.530 | -0.519 | -0.011 | -18.5 | 2 / 1 | -13.3 | 3 | -7.6 | -0.79 | +4.9 |
| 2 | NYJ | 32 | -0.170 | -0.201 | +0.032 | -5.4 | 1 / 1 | -6.6 | 4 | -8.2 | -0.16 | +7.0 |
| 3 | GB | 42 | -0.385 | -0.404 | +0.020 | -16.2 | 2 / 1 | -15.8 | 8 | -18.2 | -0.30 | +5.7 |
| 4 | MIA | 4 | -0.775 | -0.771 | -0.004 | -3.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.11 | -1.5 |
| 6 | IND | 27 | -0.252 | -0.211 | -0.041 | -6.8 | 1 / 0 | -2.3 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.37 | -3.9 |
| 10 | LAC | 30 | +0.069 | +0.045 | +0.023 | +2.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 7 | -7.1 | +0.07 | +10.9 |
| 11 | MIN | 36 | +0.097 | +0.052 | +0.045 | +3.5 | 1 / 0 | -1.5 | 5 | -8.3 | +0.04 | -4.8 |
| 12 | HOU | 32 | -0.025 | -0.062 | +0.037 | -0.8 | 1 / 0 | -8.5 | 8 | -9.2 | -0.20 | +4.9 |
| 13 | WAS | 40 | +0.002 | +0.048 | -0.046 | +0.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.7 | -0.09 | -10.2 |
| 14 | JAX | 34 | -0.391 | -0.316 | -0.075 | -13.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.6 | -0.87 | -9.2 |
| 15 | CIN | 13 | -0.966 | -0.946 | -0.020 | -12.6 | 3 / 0 | -15.9 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.27 | -4.5 |
| 18 | HOU | 19 | +0.291 | +0.249 | +0.042 | +5.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.05 | -2.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.