Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
C.J. Stroud — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.128
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.123
Dropbacks
588
Turnover EPA
-36.4
WPA
+2.79
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 48 | -0.167 | -0.237 | +0.070 | -8.0 | 0 / 1 | -5.4 | 5 | -14.2 | -0.21 | -4.6 |
| 2 | IND | 51 | +0.140 | +0.149 | -0.008 | +7.2 | 0 / 1 | -5.1 | 6 | -13.0 | -0.05 | +1.6 |
| 3 | JAX | 30 | +0.483 | +0.478 | +0.005 | +14.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.22 | +6.1 |
| 4 | PIT | 28 | +0.345 | +0.344 | +0.001 | +9.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | -4.5 |
| 5 | ATL | 35 | +0.058 | +0.094 | -0.036 | +2.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.47 | -7.7 |
| 6 | NO | 29 | +0.043 | -0.011 | +0.054 | +1.3 | 1 / 0 | +0.3 | 2 | -3.9 | +0.01 | -10.2 |
| 8 | CAR | 27 | +0.055 | +0.055 | -0.001 | +1.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | -0.13 | -1.1 |
| 9 | TB | 45 | +0.601 | +0.614 | -0.013 | +27.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.9 | +1.26 | +13.6 |
| 10 | CIN | 40 | +0.118 | +0.128 | -0.010 | +4.7 | 1 / 1 | -9.9 | 1 | -3.7 | +0.54 | +0.7 |
| 11 | ARI | 40 | +0.009 | +0.095 | -0.086 | +0.4 | 3 / 0 | -16.4 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.09 | +6.3 |
| 12 | JAX | 40 | +0.014 | +0.019 | -0.005 | +0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.2 | -0.16 | +3.6 |
| 13 | DEN | 33 | -0.012 | +0.009 | -0.022 | -0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.0 | +0.01 | -4.9 |
| 14 | NYJ | 27 | -0.543 | -0.609 | +0.066 | -14.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.4 | -0.42 | -20.5 |
| 17 | TEN | 33 | +0.084 | +0.124 | -0.040 | +2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.08 | +4.5 |
| 18 | IND | 28 | +0.431 | +0.431 | -0.000 | +12.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | +0.51 | +8.3 |
| 19 | CLE | 21 | +0.806 | +0.689 | +0.117 | +16.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.45 | +7.7 |
| 20 | BAL | 33 | -0.058 | -0.131 | +0.072 | -1.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | -6.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.