Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
C.J. Stroud — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.096
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.122
Dropbacks
259
Turnover EPA
-13.0
WPA
+0.84
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 41 | +0.051 | +0.036 | +0.015 | +2.1 | 0 / 2 | -7.0 | 3 | -8.7 | -0.04 | +3.2 |
| 2 | CIN | 57 | -0.155 | -0.102 | -0.053 | -8.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.1 | -0.16 | -8.4 |
| 3 | IND | 30 | -0.108 | -0.103 | -0.005 | -3.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.2 | -0.24 | +0.2 |
| 4 | DAL | 31 | +0.354 | +0.482 | -0.128 | +11.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.1 | +0.43 | +15.1 |
| 5 | TEN | 36 | +0.223 | +0.292 | -0.069 | +8.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.29 | +10.0 |
| 6 | JAX | 34 | +0.485 | +0.408 | +0.077 | +16.5 | 1 / 0 | -6.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.51 | +11.5 |
| 7 | NYG | 30 | -0.022 | -0.013 | -0.009 | -0.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.04 | -9.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.