Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Anthony Richardson — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.060
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.072
Dropbacks
93
Turnover EPA
-3.6
WPA
+0.10
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 41 | -0.118 | -0.107 | -0.011 | -4.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 4 | -4.0 | -0.31 | -7.8 |
| 2 | HOU | 10 | +0.194 | +0.173 | +0.021 | +1.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | -10.8 |
| 4 | LA | 29 | +0.235 | +0.249 | -0.014 | +6.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.32 | -16.4 |
| 5 | TEN | 13 | +0.130 | +0.164 | -0.035 | +1.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.02 | +14.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.