Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Drake Maye — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.186
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.184
Dropbacks
682
Turnover EPA
-82.0
WPA
+2.46
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 50 | -0.042 | -0.007 | -0.036 | -2.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.7 | 4 | -4.7 | -0.06 | +2.4 |
| 2 | MIA | 26 | +0.545 | +0.577 | -0.031 | +14.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.5 | +0.38 | +14.0 |
| 3 | PIT | 42 | +0.035 | +0.034 | +0.001 | +1.5 | 1 / 1 | -10.0 | 5 | -10.3 | -0.06 | +7.9 |
| 4 | CAR | 18 | +1.008 | +1.071 | -0.063 | +18.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.5 | +0.08 | +20.4 |
| 5 | BUF | 34 | +0.322 | +0.286 | +0.036 | +10.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -3.9 | +0.19 | +13.8 |
| 6 | NO | 27 | +0.684 | +0.645 | +0.040 | +18.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.65 | +10.8 |
| 7 | TEN | 27 | +0.303 | +0.361 | -0.058 | +8.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.6 | +0.36 | +24.8 |
| 8 | CLE | 30 | +0.284 | +0.214 | +0.070 | +8.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 6 | -8.1 | +0.04 | +18.7 |
| 9 | ATL | 35 | +0.013 | +0.012 | +0.000 | +0.4 | 1 / 1 | -10.7 | 6 | -12.1 | +0.19 | +5.3 |
| 10 | TB | 32 | +0.157 | +0.196 | -0.039 | +5.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 1 | -0.8 | +0.31 | -5.9 |
| 11 | NYJ | 35 | +0.246 | +0.350 | -0.104 | +8.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.44 | +13.5 |
| 12 | CIN | 36 | +0.130 | +0.188 | -0.058 | +4.7 | 1 / 0 | -7.1 | 1 | -2.5 | +0.23 | -0.4 |
| 13 | NYG | 34 | +0.298 | +0.339 | -0.041 | +10.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.5 | +0.12 | +15.8 |
| 15 | BUF | 26 | -0.103 | -0.131 | +0.028 | -2.7 | 1 / 0 | -0.5 | 3 | -4.8 | -0.31 | -0.5 |
| 16 | BAL | 48 | +0.341 | +0.329 | +0.011 | +16.3 | 1 / 1 | -6.3 | 3 | -4.8 | +0.50 | +12.5 |
| 17 | NYJ | 22 | +1.243 | +1.327 | -0.084 | +27.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.8 | +0.32 | +29.3 |
| 18 | MIA | 18 | +0.448 | +0.484 | -0.036 | +8.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.13 | +24.4 |
| 19 | LAC | 34 | +0.069 | -0.005 | +0.075 | +2.4 | 1 / 1 | -9.4 | 5 | -12.7 | -0.03 | -3.3 |
| 20 | HOU | 32 | -0.142 | -0.249 | +0.107 | -4.5 | 1 / 1 | -4.9 | 5 | -11.0 | -0.15 | -5.4 |
| 21 | DEN | 26 | -0.324 | -0.420 | +0.096 | -8.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -8.1 | -0.45 | -13.0 |
| 22 | SEA | 50 | -0.364 | -0.430 | +0.065 | -18.2 | 2 / 1 | -19.6 | 6 | -11.2 | -0.42 | +2.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.