Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Drake Maye — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.210
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.198
Dropbacks
227
Turnover EPA
-43.8
WPA
+0.42
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 36 | -0.022 | -0.128 | +0.106 | -0.8 | 3 / 0 | -8.5 | 3 | -2.0 | -0.38 | +6.0 |
| 2 | PIT | 25 | -0.041 | -0.051 | +0.010 | -1.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 3 | -2.7 | -0.03 | +0.9 |
| 3 | JAX | 28 | -0.453 | -0.506 | +0.053 | -12.7 | 2 / 1 | -17.4 | 3 | -9.0 | -0.30 | +0.4 |
| 4 | BUF | 39 | +0.307 | +0.283 | +0.024 | +12.0 | 1 / 1 | -8.6 | 1 | -5.4 | +0.44 | +1.1 |
| 5 | LV | 35 | +0.813 | +0.842 | -0.029 | +28.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.8 | +0.37 | +22.6 |
| 6 | NYJ | 32 | +0.288 | +0.394 | -0.105 | +9.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.13 | -1.9 |
| 7 | CHI | 32 | +0.389 | +0.370 | +0.019 | +12.4 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 2 | -4.5 | +0.18 | +15.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.