Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Caleb Williams — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.089
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.082
Dropbacks
686
Turnover EPA
-49.3
WPA
+2.57
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 37 | -0.089 | -0.189 | +0.099 | -3.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | -0.25 | -6.7 |
| 2 | DET | 34 | -0.004 | -0.028 | +0.024 | -0.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.0 | 4 | -6.7 | +0.11 | -5.6 |
| 3 | DAL | 28 | +0.541 | +0.642 | -0.101 | +15.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.47 | +3.7 |
| 4 | LV | 39 | -0.065 | -0.029 | -0.036 | -2.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.7 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.13 | -11.4 |
| 6 | WAS | 33 | +0.018 | +0.099 | -0.082 | +0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.5 | +0.10 | -8.2 |
| 7 | NO | 27 | +0.106 | +0.080 | +0.026 | +2.9 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 1 | -2.0 | -0.08 | -3.2 |
| 8 | BAL | 39 | +0.035 | +0.028 | +0.007 | +1.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.17 | +7.9 |
| 9 | CIN | 37 | +0.327 | +0.379 | -0.052 | +12.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.5 | +0.80 | -0.9 |
| 10 | NYG | 36 | -0.217 | -0.168 | -0.049 | -7.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.04 | -8.2 |
| 11 | MIN | 34 | +0.072 | -0.028 | +0.100 | +2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.02 | -9.5 |
| 12 | PIT | 35 | +0.015 | +0.016 | -0.000 | +0.5 | 0 / 1 | -6.4 | 1 | -6.4 | +0.19 | -3.9 |
| 13 | PHI | 38 | -0.076 | -0.159 | +0.083 | -2.9 | 1 / 0 | -6.9 | 2 | -2.5 | -0.29 | -12.5 |
| 14 | GB | 36 | +0.002 | -0.005 | +0.007 | +0.1 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 1 | -0.5 | -0.05 | +1.9 |
| 15 | CLE | 31 | +0.172 | +0.106 | +0.066 | +5.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.0 | +0.05 | +1.4 |
| 16 | GB | 34 | +0.180 | +0.169 | +0.011 | +6.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.49 | +0.6 |
| 17 | SF | 41 | +0.410 | +0.442 | -0.031 | +16.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.28 | -2.7 |
| 18 | DET | 35 | -0.019 | -0.041 | +0.023 | -0.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.01 | +0.1 |
| 19 | GB | 50 | +0.253 | +0.242 | +0.010 | +12.6 | 2 / 0 | -4.2 | 1 | -2.4 | +0.50 | -6.0 |
| 20 | LA | 42 | +0.049 | +0.039 | +0.010 | +2.1 | 3 / 0 | -9.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.32 | -8.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.