Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Shedeur Sanders — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.282
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.252
Dropbacks
235
Turnover EPA
-57.0
WPA
-1.72
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | BAL | 18 | -0.809 | -0.800 | -0.008 | -14.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 2 | -5.0 | -0.64 | -34.8 |
| 12 | LV | 21 | +0.062 | +0.094 | -0.033 | +1.3 | 1 / 0 | -6.2 | 1 | -1.1 | -0.04 | -6.1 |
| 13 | SF | 28 | -0.186 | -0.141 | -0.046 | -5.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.6 | +0.05 | +0.3 |
| 14 | TEN | 44 | +0.092 | +0.157 | -0.064 | +4.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.1 | 2 | -3.5 | -0.01 | -4.7 |
| 15 | CHI | 40 | -0.588 | -0.574 | -0.014 | -23.5 | 3 / 0 | -15.2 | 5 | -9.9 | -0.18 | -4.6 |
| 16 | BUF | 31 | -0.355 | -0.376 | +0.022 | -11.0 | 2 / 0 | -11.1 | 2 | -4.6 | -0.48 | +1.4 |
| 17 | PIT | 25 | -0.226 | -0.220 | -0.006 | -5.6 | 2 / 0 | -10.3 | 2 | -2.0 | -0.15 | +7.9 |
| 18 | CIN | 28 | -0.417 | -0.346 | -0.071 | -11.7 | 0 / 1 | -4.9 | 6 | -9.9 | -0.26 | -11.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.