Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Cam Ward — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.130
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.128
Dropbacks
220
Turnover EPA
-24.6
WPA
-1.05
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 35 | -0.333 | -0.210 | -0.123 | -11.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.2 | -0.24 | +0.4 |
| 2 | PHI | 22 | +0.020 | -0.004 | +0.025 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | -0.07 | +6.5 |
| 3 | NYG | 36 | -0.194 | -0.180 | -0.014 | -7.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.36 | -0.1 |
| 4 | BAL | 33 | -0.014 | +0.013 | -0.027 | -0.5 | 1 / 0 | -6.7 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.21 | +6.8 |
| 5 | HOU | 40 | -0.358 | -0.423 | +0.065 | -14.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 4 | -7.7 | -0.35 | -2.4 |
| 6 | IND | 22 | -0.170 | -0.161 | -0.009 | -3.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.07 | -20.1 |
| 7 | CLE | 32 | +0.255 | +0.183 | +0.072 | +8.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.10 | +1.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.