Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jaxson Dart — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.023
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.010
Dropbacks
375
Turnover EPA
-22.9
WPA
-0.94
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | LAC | 25 | -0.111 | -0.181 | +0.070 | -2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.3 | -0.08 | -0.3 |
| 5 | NO | 40 | -0.286 | -0.307 | +0.020 | -11.4 | 2 / 1 | -11.0 | 1 | -6.0 | -0.37 | -1.7 |
| 6 | PHI | 27 | +0.373 | +0.279 | +0.094 | +10.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.6 | +0.18 | +4.4 |
| 7 | DEN | 38 | +0.326 | +0.220 | +0.106 | +12.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 4 | -4.4 | +0.13 | -17.0 |
| 8 | PHI | 29 | +0.206 | +0.116 | +0.090 | +6.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -5.3 | -0.03 | +1.8 |
| 9 | SF | 35 | +0.012 | +0.049 | -0.037 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | -0.20 | +3.7 |
| 10 | CHI | 31 | +0.109 | +0.111 | -0.002 | +3.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.6 | +0.09 | +8.7 |
| 13 | NE | 27 | -0.151 | -0.178 | +0.028 | -4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.5 | -0.01 | +3.5 |
| 15 | WAS | 37 | -0.047 | +0.035 | -0.082 | -1.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.3 | 1 | -0.9 | -0.18 | -3.8 |
| 16 | MIN | 18 | -0.871 | -0.948 | +0.077 | -15.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 5 | -9.4 | -0.77 | -17.3 |
| 17 | LV | 32 | +0.064 | +0.093 | -0.030 | +2.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.2 | +0.04 | +4.9 |
| 18 | DAL | 36 | +0.276 | +0.383 | -0.107 | +9.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -2.9 | +0.28 | +6.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.