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Connecticut
Providence
2026-11-05
Connecticut
3-4
T
L
L
W
L
1-3 L5
VS
Upcoming
Providence
5-1
L
W
W
W
W
4-1 L5
Our Prediction
Pick
Providence
Predicted Score
3 - 4
Total: 6.2
Confidence
Medium
Elo Edge: +80
Connecticut
37%
Providence
63%
Model Line Projections
Spread
Providence +0.7
Total
O/U 6.2
What's at Stake (season simulated 40,000 times)
Connecticut
| Now | With a win | With a loss | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win conference regular season | 3.3% | 5.7% | 1.9% |
| Win conference tournament | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.3% |
| Make NCAA tournament | 19% | 25% | 16% |
| Make Frozen Four | 3.0% | 3.9% | 2.5% |
| Win national title | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
Providence
| Now | With a win | With a loss | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win conference regular season | 44% | 49% | 35% |
| Win conference tournament | 23% | 23% | 22% |
| Make NCAA tournament | 75% | 79% | 68% |
| Make Frozen Four | 19% | 21% | 17% |
| Win national title | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% |
Simulated 2026-11-03: remaining games from our model, 2026-27 conference tournament formats, NCAA field = 6 conference champions + 10 at-large by NPI. Conference tiebreakers random; NCAA bracket seeded straight by NPI. A shootout or OT win counts as a win here.
Season Stats Comparison
| Connecticut | Stat | Providence |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-1 |
| 3.25 | Goals/Game | 3.67 |
| 4.00 | Goals Against/Game | 1.83 |
| -6 | Goal Differential | +11 |
| 3-2 | Home Record | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away Record | 2-1 |
| 28.0% (7/25) | Power Play % | 13.8% (4/29) |
| 85.2% (23/27) | Penalty Kill % | 84.2% (16/19) |
Head-to-Head History (Last 5 Games)
Providence: 3-1-1
| Date | Matchup | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 07, 2026 | vs Connecticut | W 3-1 |
| Nov 08, 2025 | vs Connecticut | T 2-2 OT |
| Nov 07, 2025 | @ Connecticut | W 4-1 |
| Mar 14, 2025 | @ Connecticut | L 1-3 |
| Feb 01, 2025 | @ Connecticut | W 6-3 |
Recent Form (Last 5 Games)
Connecticut
1-3 L5
T
L
L
W
L
| Oct 31 | @ Merrimack | 5-5 OT |
| Oct 30 | @ Merrimack | 4-5 |
| Oct 24 | @ Boston University | 3-6 |
| Oct 22 | vs Boston University | 5-4 OT |
| Oct 17 | vs Colorado College | 1-4 |
Providence
4-1 L5
L
W
W
W
W
| Oct 31 | @ Quinnipiac | 1-5 |
| Oct 24 | vs Mass.-Lowell | 5-2 |
| Oct 23 | @ Mass.-Lowell | 3-0 |
| Oct 16 | @ Union | 3-2 OT |
| Oct 10 | vs Clarkson | 4-0 |
Played for the Other Side (2026-27 CHN rosters)
No one on either roster was on the other team's roster in an earlier season (CHN rosters go back to 2020-21).
Connecticut Size Extremes
- TallestBrendan Dunphy D, Owen Simpson D 6-5
- ShortestColin Frank F 5-6
- HeaviestEthan Whitcomb F 209 lb
- LightestJoey Muldowney F 160 lb
27 players on the listed roster
Providence Size Extremes
- TallestGibson Homer G 6-6
- ShortestAaron Matthews G, Andrew Centrella D, Beau Jelsma F 5-9
- HeaviestAleksi Kivioja F 220 lb
- LightestAaron Matthews G 165 lb
27 players on the listed roster
Connecticut Top Scorers
- Joey Muldowney 4G / 3A / 7P
- Ethan Gardula 3G / 4A / 7P
- Kaden Shahan 5G / 0A / 5P
- Ethan Whitcomb 2G / 3A / 5P
- Jeremy Loranger 2G / 3A / 5P
Providence Top Scorers
- Logan Sawyer 1G / 7A / 8P
- Julius Sumpf 0G / 7A / 7P
- Jonathan Fauchon 4G / 2A / 6P
- John Mustard 2G / 3A / 5P
- Quinn Mantei 0G / 5A / 5P
Connecticut Goalies
- Kam Hendrickson 4GP / 0.922 SV%
- Veeti Louhivaara 4GP / 0.866 SV%
Providence Goalies
- Jack Parsons 5GP / 0.940 SV%
- Gibson Homer 1GP / 0.900 SV%