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Notre Dame
Penn State
2026-11-06
Notre Dame
2-5-1
L
L
L
O
L
0-4-1 L5
L5
VS
Upcoming
Penn State
2-4-1
O
T
W
W
L
2-1-1 L5
Our Prediction
Pick
Penn State
Predicted Score
3 - 4
Total: 6.4
Confidence
High
Elo Edge: +107
Notre Dame
32%
Penn State
68%
Model Line Projections
Spread
Penn State +0.7
Total
O/U 6.4
What's at Stake (season simulated 40,000 times)
Notre Dame
| Now | With a win | With a loss | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win conference regular season | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% |
| Win conference tournament | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Make NCAA tournament | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Make Frozen Four | <0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Win national title | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% |
Penn State
| Now | With a win | With a loss | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win conference regular season | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Win conference tournament | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% |
| Make NCAA tournament | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.5% |
| Make Frozen Four | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Win national title | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Simulated 2026-11-03: remaining games from our model, 2026-27 conference tournament formats, NCAA field = 6 conference champions + 10 at-large by NPI. Conference tiebreakers random; NCAA bracket seeded straight by NPI. A shootout or OT win counts as a win here.
Season Stats Comparison
| Notre Dame | Stat | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5-1 | Record | 2-4-1 |
| 1.75 | Goals/Game | 2.62 |
| 4.38 | Goals Against/Game | 3.50 |
| -21 | Goal Differential | -7 |
| 2-3-1 | Home Record | 2-2 |
| 0-3 | Away Record | 0-3-1 |
| 20.0% (4/20) | Power Play % | 18.2% (4/22) |
| 62.2% (23/37) | Penalty Kill % | 83.9% (26/31) |
Head-to-Head History (Last 5 Games)
Penn State: 3-1-1
| Date | Matchup | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | @ Notre Dame | L 3-4 OT |
| Feb 27, 2026 | @ Notre Dame | T 3-3 OT |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vs Notre Dame | W 6-3 |
| Jan 16, 2026 | vs Notre Dame | W 4-1 |
| Feb 15, 2025 | vs Notre Dame | W 3-2 |
Recent Form (Last 5 Games)
Notre Dame
0-4-1 L5
L
L
L
O
L
| Oct 31 | @ Wisconsin | 1-9 |
| Oct 30 | @ Wisconsin | 1-7 |
| Oct 24 | vs Merrimack | 3-6 |
| Oct 23 | vs Merrimack | 1-2 OT |
| Oct 17 | vs Western Michigan | 0-4 |
Penn State
2-1-1 L5
O
T
W
W
L
| Oct 31 | @ Minnesota | 3-4 OT |
| Oct 30 | @ Minnesota | 1-1 OT |
| Oct 24 | vs Canisius | 3-2 OT |
| Oct 23 | vs Canisius | 5-1 |
| Oct 20 | vs Robert Morris | 2-5 |
Played for the Other Side (2026-27 CHN rosters)
No one on either roster was on the other team's roster in an earlier season (CHN rosters go back to 2020-21).
Notre Dame Size Extremes
- TallestJimmy Jurcev D 6-5
- ShortestEvan Werner F 5-8
- HeaviestWilliam Belle F 218 lb
- LightestCarter Slaggert F 172 lb
26 players on the listed roster
Penn State Size Extremes
- TallestCrew Petty G, Jackson Smith D, Nolan Collins D 6-4
- ShortestJustin Poirier F, Lev Katzin F 5-8
- HeaviestNolan Collins D 220 lb
- LightestReese Laubach F 170 lb
25 players on the listed roster
Notre Dame Top Scorers
- Evan Werner 4G / 2A / 6P
- Danny Nelson 2G / 4A / 6P
- Paul Fischer 1G / 3A / 4P
- Carter Slaggert 1G / 2A / 3P
- Beckham Edwards 1G / 1A / 2P
Penn State Top Scorers
- Justin Poirier 4G / 6A / 10P
- Jackson Smith 2G / 8A / 10P
- Justin Larose 2G / 5A / 7P
- Kale Dach 2G / 4A / 6P
- Kaden Pitre 0G / 4A / 4P
Notre Dame Goalies
- Nicholas Kempf 4GP / 0.922 SV%
- Patrick Quinlan 4GP / 0.832 SV%
Penn State Goalies
- Joshua Fleming 5GP / 0.912 SV%
- Ryder Fetterolf 3GP / 0.897 SV%