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Providence
Connecticut
2026-11-07
Providence
5-1
L
W
W
W
W
4-1 L5
VS
Upcoming
Connecticut
3-4
T
L
L
W
L
1-3 L5
Our Prediction
Pick
Providence
Predicted Score
3 - 3
Total: 6.4
Confidence
Low
Elo Edge: -80
Providence
50%
Connecticut
50%
Model Line Projections
Total
O/U 6.4
What's at Stake (season simulated 40,000 times)
Providence
| Now | With a win | With a loss | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win conference regular season | 44% | 51% | 37% |
| Win conference tournament | 23% | 23% | 23% |
| Make NCAA tournament | 75% | 80% | 70% |
| Make Frozen Four | 19% | 21% | 18% |
| Win national title | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% |
Connecticut
| Now | With a win | With a loss | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win conference regular season | 3.3% | 5.2% | 1.5% |
| Win conference tournament | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.2% |
| Make NCAA tournament | 19% | 24% | 15% |
| Make Frozen Four | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.3% |
| Win national title | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
Simulated 2026-11-03: remaining games from our model, 2026-27 conference tournament formats, NCAA field = 6 conference champions + 10 at-large by NPI. Conference tiebreakers random; NCAA bracket seeded straight by NPI. A shootout or OT win counts as a win here.
Season Stats Comparison
| Providence | Stat | Connecticut |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 3-4 |
| 3.67 | Goals/Game | 3.25 |
| 1.83 | Goals Against/Game | 4.00 |
| +11 | Goal Differential | -6 |
| 3-0 | Home Record | 3-2 |
| 2-1 | Away Record | 0-2 |
| 13.8% (4/29) | Power Play % | 28.0% (7/25) |
| 84.2% (16/19) | Penalty Kill % | 85.2% (23/27) |
Head-to-Head History (Last 5 Games)
Connecticut: 1-3-1
| Date | Matchup | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 07, 2026 | @ Providence | L 1-3 |
| Nov 08, 2025 | @ Providence | T 2-2 OT |
| Nov 07, 2025 | vs Providence | L 1-4 |
| Mar 14, 2025 | vs Providence | W 3-1 |
| Feb 01, 2025 | vs Providence | L 3-6 |
Recent Form (Last 5 Games)
Providence
4-1 L5
L
W
W
W
W
| Oct 31 | @ Quinnipiac | 1-5 |
| Oct 24 | vs Mass.-Lowell | 5-2 |
| Oct 23 | @ Mass.-Lowell | 3-0 |
| Oct 16 | @ Union | 3-2 OT |
| Oct 10 | vs Clarkson | 4-0 |
Connecticut
1-3 L5
T
L
L
W
L
| Oct 31 | @ Merrimack | 5-5 OT |
| Oct 30 | @ Merrimack | 4-5 |
| Oct 24 | @ Boston University | 3-6 |
| Oct 22 | vs Boston University | 5-4 OT |
| Oct 17 | vs Colorado College | 1-4 |
Played for the Other Side (2026-27 CHN rosters)
No one on either roster was on the other team's roster in an earlier season (CHN rosters go back to 2020-21).
Providence Size Extremes
- TallestGibson Homer G 6-6
- ShortestAaron Matthews G, Andrew Centrella D, Beau Jelsma F 5-9
- HeaviestAleksi Kivioja F 220 lb
- LightestAaron Matthews G 165 lb
27 players on the listed roster
Connecticut Size Extremes
- TallestBrendan Dunphy D, Owen Simpson D 6-5
- ShortestColin Frank F 5-6
- HeaviestEthan Whitcomb F 209 lb
- LightestJoey Muldowney F 160 lb
27 players on the listed roster
Providence Top Scorers
- Logan Sawyer 1G / 7A / 8P
- Julius Sumpf 0G / 7A / 7P
- Jonathan Fauchon 4G / 2A / 6P
- John Mustard 2G / 3A / 5P
- Quinn Mantei 0G / 5A / 5P
Connecticut Top Scorers
- Joey Muldowney 4G / 3A / 7P
- Ethan Gardula 3G / 4A / 7P
- Kaden Shahan 5G / 0A / 5P
- Ethan Whitcomb 2G / 3A / 5P
- Jeremy Loranger 2G / 3A / 5P
Providence Goalies
- Jack Parsons 5GP / 0.940 SV%
- Gibson Homer 1GP / 0.900 SV%
Connecticut Goalies
- Kam Hendrickson 4GP / 0.922 SV%
- Veeti Louhivaara 4GP / 0.866 SV%